The present and future

As for the present and future, many advances are being made to better understand this unique environment. Most, if not all, scientists have realized that this is a huge issue with potential disastrous effects. In fact, predictive models have shown a dim future for coral reefs. However, there are new studies preparing to start that show promising results and observations. At the same time, we have had some good and not so good attempts at management and restoration. Each attempt was a success at providing essential knowledge for future scientists and themselves. We must remember that future models don't take into account the actions we do to prevent the outcome, so we must do our best to prove the models wrong.

There are lots of models that show SST’s or global surface temperature changes and many more are likely to be produced in the future. Fewer models exists that try to predict how corals will relate to these changes over time, probably due to the difficulty in producing a significant portion of parameters that may influence coral reef development in the future. However, a predictive model is never finished; it is always updated as new information comes forward and you got to start somewhere. Blackwood did a model based approach using growth rates of parrotfish, macroalgae, coral recruitment, mortality, carrying capacity and reef complexity change to correlate fishing effort and hurricane frequency to coral resilience. They found that if fishing pressure is increased or hurricanes become less frequent or more intense than a similar system would approach coral depletion (Figure 2 Blackwood 2011). 

Figure 2: A measure for coral cover and rugosity over time following a hurricane impact. Dotted lines indicate a low frequency and solid lines indicate a high one (Blackwood 2011).

Buddimeir focused on coral reef responses to global warming and ocean acidification. His result suggests a bleak future with coral cover in the Caribbean dropping below 5% of its current value by 2035. As figure 3 shows, coral cover is less than 3% in all scenarios, even if no bleaching were to occur (Buddimeir 2009). From the limited information we obtained so far, it is clear that we need to conserve and manage what is left of this unique and beautiful habitat. The problem comes in knowing how to do it properly and answers will only come through more scientific exploration.

Figure 3: Effects of various mortality and growth scenarios on a coral community with an initial coral cover of 30%. Line A is no bleaching events, Line B is SST effect with moderate sensitivity to changes in saturation state. Line C is SST effect with high sensitivity. Line D and E represent a 15% and 50% mortality rate per event respectively (Buddemeier 2011). 

One possibly valid attempt to help promote coral reef habitat was to make, or just sink, artificial substrates that could support reef organisms. This has also caught on for tourism and new artificial reefs are being made for just that. However, just randomly sinking large pieces of ships, oil rigs, or concrete mixed with sea shells is not the best way of going about it. As Macreadie states, a rig-to-reef program may be a viable conservation effort, but only if certain precautions are made, especially about location (Macreadie 2011). In another study, Cambell focused on individual modeling of artificial reef placement and also stated that the distribution of artificial habitats can drastically affect the ecology of surrounding natural reefs (Cambell 2011). Feary also agrees that precaution must be made and takes a step to outline the current ecological effects present in the Arabian Gulf (Feary 2011). All three of these scientists agree that improper spacing of artificial reefs can be detrimental to natural reefs by providing invasive species with stepping stones for migration or affecting the dominance of a particular species or prey organism. Again, we feel the need for more information to be known before predicting the viability of artificial reefs for conservation. However, even if more information becomes available that makes this a genuine option, we may want to look other possibilities. Feary also showed that artificial reefs do not support the great diversity seen in natural reefs (Feary 2011). Therefore, our main focus should be to try to conserve and manage the natural reefs we still have.

Top: Photo of an artificial reef formed from a sunken ship (cited in more information) Bottom: Artificial reef in Florida to promote tourism

image from glassbox-design.com

One huge advancement in the study of reefs is the Catlin Seaview Survey. With the newly designed SVII camera,  surveys will be done to look into effects of climate change on deep reefs, provide a comprehensive of the health and composition of biodiversity and explore the mega fauna that visit. All this will be done by the specially designed camera that can take panoramic 360 degree shots. A link to this project is available is in more information tab.

The SVII camera designed for the Catlin Seaview Survey. 

Picture from seaview.org